Spatio-temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence model for Tangshan aftershock sequence

Implications of an inverse branching aftershock sequence model.

The branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model is a self-similar statistical model for earthquake aftershock sequences. A prescribed parent earthquake generates a first generation of daughter aftershocks. The magnitudes and times of occurrence of the daughters are obtained from statistical distributions. The first generation daughter aftershocks then become parent earthquakes that generate seco...

X - 2 WERNER AND SORNETTE : MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES AND FORECASTS the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clust...

California aftershock model uncertainties.

Static Stress Drop in the 1994 Northridge , California , Aftershock Sequence

We use time-domain pulse widths to estimate static stress drops for 279 M L 2.5 to 4.0 aftershocks of the 17 January 1994, M w 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake. The stress drops obtained range from 0.02 to 40 bars, with a log average of 0.75 bar. Error bars computed for our estimates are typically a factor of 5, indicating that the three order of magnitude scatter in stress drops is not s...

On the relationship between lower magnitude thresholds and bias 2 in epidemic ‐ type aftershock sequence parameter estimates

5 [1] Modern earthquake catalogs are often described using spatial‐temporal point process 6 models such as the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models of Ogata (1998). 7 Earthquake catalogs often have issues of incompleteness and other inaccuracies for 8 earthquakes of magnitude below a certain threshold, and such earthquakes are typically 9 removed prior to fitting a point process mode...